Dollar Bounces As Fed Surprise Wears Off, Yen Pressured

Reuters (20/9) -- The dollar drifted off a seven-month low against a basket of major currencies on Friday as investors unwound some of the bearish trades put on in reaction to the Federal Reserve's shock decision to maintain its massive bond-buying stimulus. The turnaround came as U.S. Treasury yields rose after a string of upbeat U.S. data suggested that rising market rates, that had so concerned the Fed, were weighing only modestly on the economy. As a result, the dollar index .DXY climbed to 80.365, pulling up from a seven-month trough of 80.060 plumbed on Wednesday. Against the yen, the greenback erased all of its Fed-induced losses to trade near 99.50, well off Wednesday's low of 97.76. The euro retreated to $1.3529 from a 7-1/2 month peak of $1.3569. The rebound in the greenback knocked the Australian dollar to $0.9445 from a three-month peak of $0.9530. 'We think the dollar is likely to recover quickly versus the lower yielding currencies in the G10,' analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a client note. U.S. data on Thursday showed U.S. home resales surged in August to a 6-1/2-year high and factories grew busier in the Mid-Atlantic region this month, underscoring recent signs of gathering economic momentum that's likely to keep traders speculating about the timing of the Fed taper. A standout mover was euro/yen, which rallied to a near four-year high of 134.95, partly because investors tend to sell the Japanese currency in favor of higher-yielding assets when risk appetite is strong. It last stood at 134.50. The Fed on Wednesday confounded many in the market by keeping its $85 billion monthly asset-buying program and sounding super dovish. Market consensus had been for a modest cut of around $10 billion to the bond-buying stimulus. The surprise decision sparked a rally in global equities and emerging market assets. It also led investors and analysts to push out the timing for when the Fed will begin scaling back stimulus. 'We now expect the Fed to start tapering in December 2013, to be completed in June 2014, with the first hike in June 2015,' analysts at Barclays Capital said. Many will go back to watching U.S. economic data to gauge the strength of the recovery and hence chances of the Fed tempering policy support. There is no major economic data to speak of on Friday, so all eyes will be on a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and any comments he might make regarding the Fed's decision. On Sunday, the outcome of Germany's general election will be closely watched. Chancellor Angela Merkel looks to secure a third term but there are doubts that she will be able to maintain her center-right coalition, which could complicate her euro zone policy.

Written by: Kontak Perkasa Futures

PT.Kontak Perkasa Futures, Updated at: 9:10 AM

Minyak perpanjang gain di Asia pasca pengumuman FOMC

AFP (19/9) - Harga minyak dunia naik di perdagangan Asia Kamis pagi setelah Federal Reserve AS tetap mempertahankan program stimulus moneter yang besarnya untuk perekonomian AS. Kontrak utama New York, West Texas Intermediate untuk Oktober naik 52 sen menjadi $ 108,59 per barel di perdagangan pertengahan pagi setelah melonjak $ 2,65 pada hari Rabu kemarin. Minyak mentah Brent North Sea untuk pengiriman November naik 27 sen menjadi $ 110,87 per barel, setelah naik $ 2,41 sehari sebelumnya. Pasar telah memperkirakan bahwa rapat kebijakan bank sentral AS pada Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC) akan menurunkan skala pembelian obligasi bulanan yang ada saat ini sebesar $ 85 milyar. Tapi FOMC mengatakan bahwa meskipun ekonomi tampaknya masih bisa bertahan di tengah pemotongan pengeluaran pemerintah, dan 'memutuskan untuk menunggu lebih banyak bukti terhadap pemulihan yang berkesinambungan' sebelum memutuskan untuk menurunkan paket stimulusnya. 'Minyak sedang booming,' kata Victor Shum, managing director dari konsultan energi IHS Purvin and Gertz di Singapura. 'The Fed telah memutuskan untuk melanjutkan program stimulus moneter, sehingga meningkatkan ekuitas dan pasar komoditas global, dan tentu saja termasuk minyak berjangka di Asia,' katanya kepada AFP. Data yang menunjukan penurunan stok minyak mentah di AS - juga mendukung harga, Shum menambahkan. 'Persediaan minyak mentah AS turun lebih dari yang diperkirakan dan juga stock bensin dan solar jadi dan konsumsi minyak AS tampaknya sangat kuat,' katanya. Departemen Energi AS mengatakan persediaan minyak mentah AS jatuh 4,4 juta barel pekan lalu, lebih dari perkiraan 1,2 juta barel.(brc)

Written by: Kontak Perkasa Futures

PT.Kontak Perkasa Futures, Updated at: 11:26 AM

Dollar Trades Near 7-Month Low Versus Euro as Fed Avoids Taper

Bloomberg(18/9) -- The dollar traded 0.2 percent from a seven-month low against the euro after the Federal Reserve kept the current pace of asset purchases that tend to debase the currency, defying economists predicting a stimulus reduction. Demand for the greenback waned after policy makers maintained the U.S. central bank’s $85 billion of monthly purchases of government debt and mortgage-backed securities, known as quantitative easing or QE, compared with a forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for a $5 billion reduction in Treasury purchases. The yen maintained losses versus most of its major counterparts after a government report today showed Japan had a trade deficit for a 14th month. “The Fed statement was noticeably dovish, causing dollar selling,” said Yuki Sakasai, a foreign-exchange strategist in New York at Barclays Plc. “There is expectation that there may more QE.” The dollar was little changed at $1.3526 per euro as of 9:23 a.m. in Tokyo after touching $1.3542 yesterday, the weakest since Feb. 7. It gained 0.1 percent to 98.08 yen after falling as much as 1.4 percent yesterday to 97.76, the lowest since Aug. 29. Japan’s currency slid 0.2 percent to 132.63 per euro. “Conditions in the job market today are still far from what all of us would like to see,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a press conference yesterday in Washington after a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. “The committee has concern that rapid tightening of financial conditions in recent months would have the effect of slowing growth.”

Written by: Kontak Perkasa Futures

PT.Kontak Perkasa Futures, Updated at: 9:07 AM

Bursa Asia tersenyum menyambut keputusan The Fed

TOKYO. Bursa saham Asia melonjak dan membawa indeks patokan ke level tertinggi empat bulan. Sementara itu, obligasi dan logam reli setelah bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) atau Federal Reserve menunda rencana pengurangan stimulus ekonomi.

Sementara itu, ringgit Malaysia melonjak terhadap dolar AS. Sementara itu, yen, mata uang Jepang turun dibandingkan dolar AS. Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific menguat 1,2% pukul 09:38 waktu Tokyo. Ringgit memimpin kenaikan mata uang emerging market, sedangkan yen dan dolar Australia melemah .

Tokyo Indeks Topix  jepang naik 0,8% hari ini, sedangkan S & P / ASX 200 Index Australia naik 1%, menuju penutupan tertinggi sejak Juni 2008.  Sementara itu, perdagangan di China, Taiwan dan Korea Selatan tutup hari ini termasuk di Sri Lanka.

"Kami menilai hal ini sebagai hal yang positif,” kata Keith Poore, kepala strategi investasi di AMP Capital Investors Ltd di Wellington. Sebelumnya, The Federal Open Market Committee mengatakan, pihaknya butuh bukti pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih banyak untuk mengurangi stimulus.

Sementara itu, mata uang ringgit melonjak 2% menjadi 3,1708 per dolar. Sedangkan baht, mata uang Thailand juga naik 1,7%, kenaikan terbesar sejak 2007. Sementara itu yuan naik 0,1% ke rekor 6,1047 per dolar di Hong Kong . Sementara itu, pasar non-deliverable (NDF) won Korea Selatan melonjak 0,6% ke level terkuat sejak Januari .

Source: http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/bursa-asia-tersenyum-menyambut-keputusan-the-fed

Written by: Kontak Perkasa Futures

PT.Kontak Perkasa Futures, Updated at: 9:03 AM

Oil prices mixed ahead of Fed announcement

AFP, (18/9) --  World oil prices were mixed in Asian trade Wednesday as investors await the end of the US Federal Reserve's closely watched policy meeting to find out its plans for its stimulus programme. New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate for delivery in October was up 18 cents at $105.60 in morning trade, while Brent North Sea crude for November fell 36 cents to $107.83. With the threat of military action in Syria receding, attention has turned to the outcome of the Fed's two-day meeting, with expectations for a reduction in its $85 billion a month bond purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE). Bank chief Ben Bernanke will make a statement after the meeting before holding a news conference. 'The Fed is expected to announce the long-awaited decision to taper asset purchases,' DBS Bank said in a market commentary, adding that market consensus is for a  'cautious' reduction of about $15-20 billion. 'The Fed's first order of business  will be to reassure global markets that the taper will not derail the recovery,' DBS said. Oil prices rose to multi-month highs this month on fears that the US would launch military strikes against Syria to punish the Assad regime for its alleged use of chemical weapons on its own people. But prices eased after a US-Russia deal that will see Syria's toxic arsenal destroyed has averted an attack for now. News that Libya has resumed some oil production has also helped put downward pressure on prices. Protests by oil field workers since July had crippled Libyan production.

Written by: Kontak Perkasa Futures

PT.Kontak Perkasa Futures, Updated at: 9:45 AM

Hong Kong Stocks Fall, Led by Tech Shares Ahead of Fed Decision

Bloomberg(18/9) -- Hong Kong stocks fell a second day as technology and energy companies led declines ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement on whether it will pare stimulus. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.1 percent to 23,147.39 as of 9:37 a.m. in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, also known as the H-share index, slid 0.1 percent to 10,640.97. The H-share index entered a bull market last week after rebounding more than 20 percent from a June low, while the Hang Seng Index erased its 2013 loss. Shares climbed as China economic data including exports and factory output boosted confidence in the world’s second-biggest economy. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark traded at 11.1 times estimated earnings yesterday, compared with 15.4 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.  Bank of America Merrill Lynch last week joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG in raising predictions for economic expansion in China. The government has defended its target of 7.5 percent annual growth.  Futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.1 percent today. The U.S. equity gauge added 0.4 percent yesterday in New York, sending the index toward a record high, as Microsoft Corp. announced a $40 billion buyback.  The Federal Open Market Committee is considering whether it will taper $85 billion in monthly bond buying. Purchases will probably be cut by $5 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, less than the $10 billion reduction predicted earlier.

Written by: Kontak Perkasa Futures

PT.Kontak Perkasa Futures, Updated at: 9:37 AM

Emas turun untuk sesi hari ke-3, fokus pada hasil FOMC

Singapura, Reuters (18/9) - Emas perpanjang penurunannya hingga sesi hari ketiga pada pagi ini, jatuh sekitar 1 persen dan ditransaksikan dibawah $1,300 per ounce dimana para investor memperkirakan bahwa the Fed akan mengumumkan pengurangan langkah stimulus yang selama ini menjadi sahabat bullion. Spot emas jatuh 0.9 persen ke posisi $1,297.79 per ounce pukul 07:28 WIB. Sebelumnya harga sempat jatuh ke $1,295.24 - terendah sejak 8 Agustus. The Fed diperkirakan akan memulai pengetatan dari kebijakan moneter ultra longgarnya pada hari Rabu ini dengan mengumumkan pengurangan kecil dari program pembelian obligasinya, sementara tingkat suku bunga kemungkinan masih akan tetap pada hampir nol persen untuk jangka waktu yang lebih lama. Sebagian besar ekonom memprediksi bahwa bank sentral AS akan mengumumkan pengurangan $10 milyar dari program pembelian aset bulanan senilai $85 milyar. Indeks harga konsumen AS hampir tidak mengalami kenaikan di bulan Agustus, namun meningkatnya sewa rumah dan biaya perawatan medis menunjukan stabilisasi pada tingkat inflasi dasar yang bisa membuat the Fed merasa nyaman untuk memankas pembelian obligasinya. Emas terkadang dipandang sebagai lindung nilai terhadap inflasi. Goldman Sach memberikan rekomendasi netral kepada harga emas sampai akhir tahun, mengutip serangkaian data ekonomi AS yang mengecewakan dan ekspektasi pemangkasan yang 'dovish' dari the Fed. Konsumen emas top dunia, India menaikan pajak impor atas perhiasan emas dari 10 persen menjadi 15 persen, menjadi kenaikan pajak yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan emas mentah dalam upaya melindungi industri perhiasan domestik. (brc)

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PT.Kontak Perkasa Futures, Updated at: 9:29 AM